Unstoppable march of autocracy?

As Bob Dylan sang: “The Germans now, too, have God on their side.” More obscurely, unionist activist Florence Reece wrote the song “Which Side Are You On?” – made less obscure by Pete Seeger.

Well, yes, the people and nations on each side change from time to time, but more pertinently this century the nature of the sides themselves has changed. No longer do we have left v right; labour v capitalists; communist v the west; US v China.

The early 21^st century’s alignment of sides is perhaps more fundamental and existential. It is autocracy v liberal democracy. When the Soviet Union collapsed and the Cold War ended, most naively thought the natural “progress” towards liberal democracy was unstoppable because that is what people would want. Silly us.

What about the fundamental paradox of liberal democracy? What if the voters, at some stage, do not want it? What if they vote for a strongman who stands for their ethno-nationalism even if they might rue the day later on? For that is what, sadly, is happening.

Most alarming have been developments in the US and Israel.

Democracy’s contraction in the 21 st century should not be seen as individual backward steps or as silos referenced by US foreign policy and a lessening of US leadership and the rules-based order – the war on terror backfiring; the Russian annexations and invasions of Ukraine; China’s posturing in the South China Sea and against Taiwan; and Iran’s export of terror and its nuclear threat.

Rather it should be seen as a worrying overall trend and ask why has autocracy so unexpectedly advanced in the 21 st century.

In the 20 th century autocracy was mostly clothed in two ideologies: fascism and communism. The stated aim of both was the betterment of their people. The ideologies were pursued in the name of the people – even if it was only lip service and that they came up catastrophically short.

The leaders wanted at least to be thought of as telling the truth and were offended if branded as liars: witness Krushchev banging his shoe on the table at the United Nations.

In the 21 st century, on the other hand, autocrats do not care if they are branded liars or even murderers. Putin, Xi, Assad, Khamenei and so on. They are only interested in staying in power, preferably with ever-increasing wealth for themselves and their cronies.

And a critical part of that is normalising, justifying, and legitimising autocracy across the globe. The odd grouping of Russia, China, and Iran and the co-operation between them is not a foreign-policy choice for each of those nations, but a domestic-policy choice.

The colour revolutions (Rose in Georgia 2003, Orange in Ukraine 2004, Tulip in Kyrgystan 2005, and Velvet in Armenia 2018) together with the Arab Spring 2010-2012 (Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain etc) scared the living daylights out of autocrats everywhere. They had to stop what looked like the unstoppable because they had everything to lose. 

So, they have been helping each other. Not just China, Iran and Russia. Others have joined in blurring all the old lines of left v right or fascism v communism: Belorussia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Cuba, Hungary, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, Nicaragua, and the list goes on and on.

And that is why the march of autocracy has spread, and democracy retreated.

They share weapons of war and surveillance technology. They support each other in the UN and other international forums. They help each other evade sanctions. And they support each other in international markets. As I write Russian jets are helping Assad quash a rebellion in Syria.

They also attack and undermine democracies with misinformation and information laundering – made easier because the non-governing side in any democracy often helps them and because democracies are open. They also prevent democracies using the same tactics in reverse because the autocracies are closed societies. 

Of course, the banking sectors in the democracies were blind enough to initially profit from the autocratic trend, happily providing banking services to house the ill-gotten gains of the kleptocrats, at best naively believing they were helping the transition to democracy, but more likely oblivious to the moral ambivalence.

The autocrats’ greatest enemy is not democracy per se. They can easily arrange a vote-count in their favour. Rather their enemy is liberal democracy which demands the rule of law not rule by laws.

The rule of law applies to all. No-one is above it. It also implies a range of universal human rights and freedoms: preventing arbitrary search, seizure or arrest; providing due process; free speech; open and accountable government in which power resides in the office not the office-holder; and free and fair elections. 

Autocratic rule by laws, on the other hand, means the autocrat applies whatever law they want to create to be applied selectively to whomever they want. 

Autocrats hate the universality of the rule of a law because, on one hand, it protects those who dissent against them when the autocrat would persecute, kill, or exile them on a whim. And, on the other hand, the rule of law applies equally to the autocrats and holds them to account when they transgress, as they constantly do.

This is why they talk of sovereignty and “non-interference” so they can persecute and murder at will.

We have witnessed more than a decade of the slow retreat of democracy. And now we see anti-democratic, autocratic trends in two hitherto full democracies: the US and Israel.

President-elect Trump has foreshadowed demands for personal loyalty from his appointees and by-passing constitutional niceties, among other things. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for his alleged part in the genocide in Gaza.   

The question to ask, then, is whether autocracy is “fitter” in the Darwinian sense than democracy and that democracy is but a small episode in a pervasive spread of autocracy. 

Or will we see, for example, that the checks and balances in the US Constitution prevent Trump’s descent into autocracy and will we see the people of Israel demanding accountability for the excesses of Netanyahu which have led to so many innocent people being killed?

Autocracy and violence must not be fought with more autocracy and violence.

Democracy and the people who trust and believe in it (and the rule of law) as humanity’s best form of government are facing severe tests. Individuals, governments, businesses, and social organisations have to challenge and isolate autocratic criminality whether as the enemy within or without. If we don’t, there will be no individual freedom, no businesses, no civil government and no independent social organisations. 

Ask those in the nations cited above.

Autocratic evil must be isolated and its people freed. The threat is existential for us and them.

Crispin Hull 

This article first appeared in The Canberra Times and other Australian media on 3 December 2024.