Uncategorized | Crispin Hull

Climate’s vicious circle for insurers

The fires on the Hawaiian island of Maui have had fairly wide coverage in Australia, largely because we had similar fires here in 2019. The fires will obviously contribute to global heating and the upsetting of stable climate systems. But there is another human-made hitherto stable system under threat: insurance.

Sofronoff’s useless report

A stark contrast emerged in the past week about what to do about short-comings in the police and criminal justice system’s carriage of sexual-assault cases.

A Voice plan & why we feel financially drained

Memo Prime Minister Anthony Albanese: Now you have committed to the referendum this year, you must to everything you can to get it across the line.

The No campaign has used every dirty trick of lies, exaggeration and fear campaigns. The Yes campaign does not have to join them in deceit, but it has to get a bit clever.

A big leg up for Yes would come if the Federal voting age were reduced to 16.

Unholy alliance on migration

An important and insightful piece of Australian economic and social research was published last week and got virtually no coverage.

I will come back to it, but first to some history.

Should we delay the Voice vote?

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese should not abandon the Voice referendum – at least not yet. But if the polls continue their present trend, he will have to seriously consider it.

The choice is stark. If the referendum is put and lost, a very sensible proposal and all of the exhaustive consultation with Indigenous people would be lost, never to be regained.

Reserve Banks loses leverage

Spare a thought for the new Governor of the Reserve Bank, Michelle Bullock. In the past few days many have reflected on the “mistakes” of out-going Governor Philip Lowe, sometimes comparing him to earlier Governors who seemed to use the interest-rate lever with more finesse.

But the more likely explanation is not that Lowe made “mistakes” by holding rates too high for too long to meet a non-existent wage spiral; holding rates too low for too long fearing an economic crash that did not happen; and then jacking them up too high too quickly.

Rather it is that Lowe’s governorship coincided with changes in the Australian economy that made the interest-rate lever a much less predictable tool. And it will not be any different for Bullock.

NATO must bring Putin down

NATO leaders will meet this week in Lithuania, a nation that suffered both the Nazi jackboot and the hammer of Soviet communism. Their main subject, of course, will be Ukraine, which suffered the same fate as Lithuania and now suffers at the hands of the Putin dictatorship.

As those leaders meet, they should reflect upon the words of Robert Jackson delivered during the opening the prosecution at the Nuremberg trial in 1945:

The obsession with surpluses

The Federal Government has posted the first actual surplus for 15 years – as distinct from a projected surplus with celebratory coffee mugs just before covid struck.

The essential lesson is not to get stuck on the mantra of “surplus good, deficit bad” and that that is the be-all and end-all of budgetary (or fiscal) policy. Governments are not like households. They do not have to keep spending within the bounds of income or go bankrupt.

Restoring trust in politics

Question Time should be abolished. Its corrosive effect on our democracy was exposed yet again last week – the last sitting week before the long winter break.

Question Time was supposed to increase trust in the institution of Parliament by keeping the executive government accountable. But it has now been reduced to a scripted pantomime.

Nats in blunder over Voice

Nats say No to Voice. Not a smile in sight.

Nationals Leader David Littleproud made an astounding error of fact in his arguments against the Voice yesterday.

But in doing so he inadvertently made one of the strongest arguments in favour of the Voice so far.

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